APPENDIX: MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE CHESTER REGION, 1801-1911
This appendix outlines the methods used to derive
estimates for net migration trends in the Chester
region over the period 1801-1911. Estimates before
1851 (Table 24) are more tentative in view of the lack
of statistics for births and deaths within the region. The
natural increase of population in Cheshire between
1801 and 1831 has been estimated as 12.7 per 1,000. (fn. 4)
That rate was applied to the population of Chester and
its suburbs, subtracting the actual population increase
to calculate an estimate for net migration in each
Estimates for the period 1851-1911 (Table 25) have
been derived from data for Chester registration district,
which covered more than the city and its suburbs,
including the rural hinterland, the Deeside industrial
belt, and part of Ellesmere Port. The registration
district was standardized on its 1871 boundaries,
excluding Ellesmere Port, and the natural increase of
population was calculated from the number of births
and deaths recorded in the decennial census, allowing
for possible under-registration. (fn. 5) For each decade the
natural increase was apportioned pro rata between
Chester and other parts of the registration district,
and the figure for Chester was then subtracted from the
actual decennial population change to calculate the net
migration balance for Chester.
Emigration overseas probably formed a large element in migration trends from the Chester area after
1850, and two methods have been used to estimate its
extent (Table 17). Estimate 1 involved using the figures
for net emigration from England and Wales as a
whole, (fn. 6) reducing the gross figures of emigrants by 39
per cent to allow for those who returned from overseas. (fn. 7) Overseas emigration from Chester was estimated
by applying the national rate each decade pro rata to
the population of the city and its suburbs at the start of
the decade and subtracting the result from the estimate
of overall net migration. The residual balance of
regional migration for Chester and suburbs thus
omits emigrants overseas.
Estimate 2 is an alternative and probably sounder
estimate of emigration from Chester, based on more
detailed figures of emigrants by county of birth. (fn. 8) The
estimate for Chester is based on the average for those
born in Cheshire, Denbighshire, and Flintshire, which
themselves varied markedly.
|TABLE 24: Estimated net migration, Chester
and suburbs, 1801-51
Estimated population at end of decade by natural increase
Actual population at end of decade
Estimated net migration
Source: See text.
The two estimates differ but show similar trends. Although they must therefore be used with caution, they suggest the possible significance of overseas emigrants within Chester's wider migration pattern.
|TABLE 25: Estimated net migration, Chester
region and Chester, 1851-1911
Estimated natural increase, Chester registration district
Estimated net migration Chester registration district
Estimated net migration, Chester and suburbs
Note: Using 1871 boundaries for registration district, excluding
Source: See text.
||Deane and Cole, Brit. Econ. Growth, table 29.
||Using multipliers in E. A. Wrigley and R. S. Schofield,
Population Hist. of Eng. 1541-1871, 636 (table A8.5).
||N. H. Carrier and J. R. Jeffery, External Migration, 92-3,
||D. Baines, Migration in a Mature Economy: Emigration
and Internal Migration in Eng. and Wales, 1861-1900, 131
||Ibid. chapter 4 and app. I.